New Methodology to Determine Work Zone Capacity Distribution

作者：Weng Jinxian^*; Yan Xuedong

来源：Transportation Research Record, 2014, 2461(2461): 25-31.

DOI：10.3141/2461-04

Because the true value of work zone capacity is difficult to know with perfect confidence, work zone capacity should be represented by means of a probability distribution. This study proposes a methodology for determining work zone capacity distribution on the basis of the probabilistic speed flow relationships. First, traffic speed and flow are modeled as random variables following the lognormal distribution. Then, the lognormal distributed speed flow functions are established to formulize the probabilistic speed flow relationships under uncongested and congested traffic conditions, respectively. Finally, a work zone capacity distribution model is derived on the basis of the probabilistic speed flow relationships. A case study that uses the observed traffic data from Singapore work zones is conducted to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The effects related to work zone configuration such as geometrical alignment and speed limit on the mean and prediction interval of work zone capacity are examined. The proposed methodology could help traffic engineers evaluate the variability of work zone capacity and the reliability of traffic management strategies.

• 出版日期2014
• 单位北京交通大学