Application of a Demographic Model for Evaluating Proposed Oyster-Restoration Actions in Chesapeake Bay

作者：Weber Edward D^*; Volstad Jon Helge; Christman Mary C; Lewis Danny; Dew Baxter Jodi R

来源：Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 2013, 19(5): 1187-1203.

DOI：10.1080/10807039.2013.767110

• oyster
• demographic model
• Chesapeake Bay
• environmental impact statement
• environmental risk assessment

A demographic model was developed for oyster populations in the Chesapeake Bay, USA, to explore population responses to proposed management actions in support of an Environmental Impact Statement and Environmental Risk Assessment for oyster restoration. The model indicated that high natural mortality due to disease strongly controlled the population of native Eastern oysters. Continuing restoration effort at recent levels was predicted not to increase oyster populations. An enhanced restoration program that included habitat improvement and stocking would likely increase populations, particularly in areas with lower salinity where disease prevalence was lower. However, population numbers would likely reach a plateau much less than the restoration goal a few years after enhanced restoration efforts ended. A harvest moratorium was predicted to have a smaller positive effect than enhanced restoration. A moratorium likely would take much longer than the 10-year restoration period to meet restoration goals given the present high natural mortality rates. The proposed introduction of non-native Suminoe oysters was not modeled because insufficient data existed with which to parameterize the model. These results were used semi-quantitatively in the Ecological Risk Assessment to evaluate population trajectories and speculate about population changes more than 10years after implementation of a management action.

• 出版日期2013-9-3