Age, period, and cohort effects in motor vehicle mortality in the United States, 1980-2010: The role of sex, alcohol involvement, and position in vehicle

作者：Macinko James^*; Silver Diana; Bae Jin Yung

来源：Journal of Safety Research, 2015, 52: 47-57.

DOI：10.1016/j.jsr.2014.12.003

• Motor vehicle crashes
• Age-period-cohort analysis
• Alcohol

Introduction: Although substantive declines in motor vehicle fatalities in 1980-2010 have been observed, declines by position in the vehicle and alcohol involvement have not been well elucidated. Method: Analyses of PARS data use the Intrinsic Estimator (IE) to produce estimates of all age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously by position in the car and by alcohol involvement. Results: Declines in MVC deaths by position in the car vary for men and women by age and cohort over time. Cohorts born before 1970 had higher risks than those born later. Analyses using proxy indicators of alcohol involvement found the highest risks for those aged 16-24. By period, these risks declined more rapidly than non- alcohol related traffic fatalities. Conclusion: Changes in risk patterns are consistent with evidence regarding the contributions of new technologies and public policy efforts to reduce fatalities, but gains have not been shared evenly by sex or position in the car. Practical applications: Greater attention is needed in reducing deaths among older drivers and pedestrians. Gender differences should be addressed in prevention efforts aimed at reducing MVCs due to alcohol involvement.

• 出版日期2015-2