A Mathematical Model to Predict Short-Term Recurrence and Metastasis of Primary Hepatocellular Carcinoma Larger than 10cm in Diameter

作者：Huang, Xinhui; Wei, Wei; Ya, Na; Zeng, Jinhua; Zeng, Yongyi; Ma, Chuang; Chi, Minhui; Wu, Yanbin; Li, Yuntong; Huang, Yao; Zhang, Xiang; Huang, Aimin; Liu, Jingfeng^*

来源：Hepato-Gastroenterology, 2013, 60(122): 225-230.

DOI：10.5754/hge12630

• Huge hepatocellular carcinoma
• Recurrence
• Metastasis
• Early Stage
• Prediction

Background/Aims: To construct a mathematical model to predict short-term recurrence and metastasis of primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) larger than 10cm in diameter after radical resection and analyze the influencing factors. Methodology: A total of 166 patients with primary HCC larger than 10cm were recruited from January 2002 to December 2010. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed and a mathematic model predicting the recurrence of HCC at different time points was constructed. Results: Univariable analysis showed preoperative serum AFP of >= 1210ng/mL (X4), intra-operative macroscopic tumor thrombus (X7) and postoperative pathological grade (X11) were related to the recurrence within 6 months after surgery Preoperative serum AFP of >= 1210ng/mL (X4) and microscopic tumor thrombus (X10) were associated with the recurrence within 6-12 months after surgery. Multivariable analysis revealed the risk factors of recurrence within 6 months and 6-12 months after surgery included preoperative serum AFP of >= 1210ng/mL (X4) and intra-operative macroscopic tumor thrombus (X7); those within 6-12 months after surgery were preoperative serum AFP of >= 1210 ng/mL (X4) and microscopic tumor thrombus (X10). Conclusions: Preoperative serum AFP and blood vessel involvement are risk factors of short-term recurrence/metastasis of huge HCC after surgery The equation for prediction of HCC recurrence at different time points varies.

• 出版日期2013-4
• 单位福建医科大学