An examination of Value Line's long-term projections

作者：Szakmary Andrew C^*; Conover C Mitchell; Lancaster Carol

来源：Journal of Banking & Finance, 2008, 32(5): 820-833.

DOI：10.1016/j.jbankfin.2007.06.002

• Value Line
• long-term projections
• analyst forecasts
• cost-of-capital

Unlike previous papers, which have focused on the timeliness ranks, we examine Value Line's 3-5 year projections for stock returns, earnings, sales and related measures. We find that Value Line's stock return and earnings forecasts exhibit large positive bias, although their sales predictions do not. For stock returns, Value Line's projections lack predictive power; for other variables predictive power may exist to some degree. Our findings suggest the spectacular past performance of the timeliness indicator reflects either close alignment with other known anomalies or data mining, and that investors and researchers should use Value Line's long-term projections with caution.

• 出版日期2008-5