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摘要
Objective: To apply and examine the performance of 2 acute stroke outcome prediction models, the Six Simple Variable Model (SSV model) and the One-Year Mortality Model (OYM model), in patients in China who had either a cerebral infarction or a cerebral hemorrhage.
Design: An observational study that used both retrospective and prospective study methods.
Setting: A regional acute care facility in China.
Participants: Two hundred and forty-eight consecutive patients who had an acute stroke who were admitted to the hospital between October 2007 and March 2009.
Interventions: Not applicable.
Main Outcome Measures: Survival and daily activity independence 6 months after a stroke and 1-year mortality.
Results: The study sample had a mean age of 68.6 years (standard deviation, 11.1); 52.8% of the subjects were men, 66.5% had a cerebral infarction, and 33.5% had a cerebral hemorrhage. In the cohort, 107 patients (43.1%) achieved daily activity independence at 6-month follow-up, and 52 patients (21.0%) had died within 1 year. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.966 (0.935-0.998) for patients who had a cerebral infarction and 0.859 (0.766-0.952) for patients who had a cerebral hemorrhage in the prediction of 6-month survival and daily activity independence with use of the SSV model. The area under the ROC curve was 0.894 (0.846-0.965) for patients who had a cerebral infarction and 0.937 (0.904-0.988) for patients who had a cerebral hemorrhage in the prediction of 1-year mortality when the OYM model was used.
Conclusions: Both the SSV and OYM prognostic models can be used for function and mortality outcome prediction for patients in China who have had a stroke. Variation existed in the precision of prediction between patients who had a cerebral infarction and those who had a cerebral hemorrhage. Other potential factors influencing functional recovery and mortality after stroke must be considered in outcome prediction.
- 出版日期2012-2
- 单位北京大学
