A nomogram for predicting locoregional recurrence in primary breast cancer patients who received breast-conserving surgery after neoadjuvant chemotherapy

作者：Matsuda Naoko; Hayashi Naoki^*; Ohde Sachiko; Yagata Hiroshi; Kajiura Yuka; Yoshida Atsushi; Suzuki Koyu; Nakamura Seigo; Tsunoda Hiroko; Yamauchi Hideko

来源：Journal of Surgical Oncology, 2014, 109(8): 764-769.

DOI：10.1002/jso.23586

• breast-conserving therapy
• breast cancer
• neoadjuvant chemotherapy
• locoregional recurrence
• nomogram

Background %26lt;br%26gt;We sought to develop and validate a predictive model of locoregional recurrence (LRR) in patients who underwent breast-conserving therapy (BCT) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). %26lt;br%26gt;Patients and methods %26lt;br%26gt;The clinicopathological characteristics of 520 consecutive primary breast cancer patients with residual tumor who underwent BCT after NAC between 2001 and 2008 were evaluated. Predictive variables of LRR were determined using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. The model was validated for discrimination and calibration by bootstrap re-sampling. %26lt;br%26gt;Results %26lt;br%26gt;At a median follow-up period of 51 months, 64 patients (12%) had developed LRR. Clinical stage T3 or T4, lymphovascular invasion, nuclear grade %26gt;3, and %26gt;= 4 positive lymph nodes metastasis were positively correlated with LRR. The nomogram for predicting LRR developed by using these four-clinicopathologic variables demonstrated high concordance. Patients with score 0-1 derived by the prediction model had significantly low LRR rate compared with patients with score 2 or higher (P %26lt; 0.001). %26lt;br%26gt;Conclusions %26lt;br%26gt;This nomogram may be useful to predict LRR in primary breast cancer patients who underwent BCT after NAC with high reproducibility. This model is useful to conduct a study-identifying patients who may need an additional treatment to standard adjuvant therapy because of a high probability of LRR. J. Surg. Oncol. 2014 109:764-769.

• 出版日期2014-6