Not Black Not even White Definitively Grey Economic Systems

作者：Delcea Camelia^*

来源：Journal of Grey System, 2014, 26(1): 11-25.

• grey systems theory
• GM models
• global economic system
• grey knowledge
• grey economic systems

To better explain why the economic systems are grey, it is necessarily to study their components and to effectively look into their pasts or predict their future. In most of the cases, when predicting their future, the uncertainty arises. First of all, the human component plays an important role due to its usually unpredicted and sometimes irrational behaviour, a situation strictly related to the way the humans are thinking and acting. From here, it is easily be demonstrated that when analysing a system we are facing with grey knowledge. This kind of knowledge exists and it represents that small piece of puzzle that succeed in filling the gap that separate the explicit knowledge form the tacit one, also conducting to incertitude. Second, it often happens that the abnormal situations or crises that may arise in the economic systems to depend on various, mostly unknown or unpredicted, environmental conditions, including here turbulences. Moreover, when focusing specifically on firms as parts of the economic systems, this grey situation becomes even more noticeable. Firms - complex adaptive systems by nature - possess one of the most important sources of uncertainty that derives directly from their highly adaptive capacity. That is why, when analysing the economic systems, in general, or their sub-systems, in particular, the applying of the grey systems theory methods becomes a very good alternative to the already consecrated methods. To support this idea, some of the most well-known and well-used methods in the economic systems "treatment" (including grey systems theory) are presented along with their main advantages and disadvantages. Also, a case study is illustrated, showing how we can combine these theories in order to achieve better results.

• 出版日期2014