Analytical methods for a stochastic mainland-island metapopulation model

作者：Buckley F M^*; Pollett P K

来源：Ecological Modelling, 2010, 221(21): 2526-2530.

DOI：10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.02.017

• Metapopulation
• Discrete-time Markov chain
• Mainland-island
• Chain-binomial model
• Seasonal phases

We study a class of chain-binomial metapopulation models, giving special attention to the 'mainland-island' configuration, where patches receive immigrants from an external source. We evaluate the distribution of the number n(t) of occupied patches at any census time t and establish a law of large numbers that identifies a deterministic trajectory which can be used to approximate the process when the number of patches is large. We also establish a central limit law, which shows that the fluctuations about this trajectory are approximately normally distributed. We describe briefly much finer results that can be used for model calibration.

• 出版日期2010-10-24