Assessing hurricane damage costs in the presence of vulnerability model uncertainty

作者：Wang, Cao; Zhang, Hao; Feng, Kairui; Li, Quanwang^*

来源：Natural Hazards, 2017, 85(3): 1621-1635.

DOI：10.1007/s11069-016-2651-z

• Hurricane
• Damage costs
• Hurricane vulnerability
• Model uncertainty
• Probabilistic risk analysis
• Non-stationarity
• Climate change

Probability-based assessment of hurricane damage costs for coastal communities is vital for policy-makers and insurers. The uncertainties associated with hurricane damage costs include both the inherent uncertainty due to the random nature of hurricane process and the model uncertainty of the mathematical representation of hurricane damage (vulnerability model). The hurricane vulnerability model has traditionally been modeled as a deterministic function of hurricane wind speed in the literature, without considering the effect of vulnerability model uncertainty on hurricane damage assessment. This paper develops two methods to assess the hurricane damage costs in the presence of vulnerability model uncertainty. To account for the non-stationarity in hurricane actions due to the potential impact of climate change, the hurricane occurrence process is modeled as a non-stationary Poisson process and the hurricane intensity is assumed to vary in time with time-variant statistical parameters of hurricane wind speed. A case study of Miami-Dade County, Florida, is conducted to illustrate the proposed methods and to investigate the impact of vulnerability model uncertainty on hurricane damage costs.

• 出版日期2017-2
• 单位清华大学