Analytical models approximating individual processes: A validation method

作者：Favier C^*; Degallier N; Menkes C E

来源：Mathematical Biosciences, 2010, 228(2): 127-135.

DOI：10.1016/j.mbs.2010.08.014

• Model upscaling
• Individual-based models
• Population-level models
• Statistical tests
• Epidemic models
• Cyclically feeding vectors

Upscaling population models from fine to coarse resolutions, in space, time and/or level of description, allows the derivation of fast and tractable models based on a thorough knowledge of individual processes. The validity of such approximations is generally tested only on a limited range of parameter sets. A more general validation test, over a range of parameters, is proposed; this would estimate the error induced by the approximation, using the original model's stochastic variability as a reference. This method is illustrated by three examples taken from the field of epidemics transmitted by vectors that bite in a temporally cyclical pattern, that illustrate the use of the method: to estimate if an approximation over- or under-fits the original model; to invalidate an approximation; to rank possible approximations for their qualities. As a result, the application of the validation method to this field emphasizes the need to account for the vectors' biology in epidemic prediction models and to validate these against finer scale models.

• 出版日期2010-12