摘要

In this paper, we use the ETAS model and the Reasenberg-Jones (RJ) model to compare the model parameter stability, aftershock occurrence rate and aftershock probability forecasted of the Jiuzhaigou M(S)7. 0 earthquake sequence, and the information gain per earthquake (IGPE), N-test and T-test were used to evaluate the forecast results also. The results show that the sequence parameters of ETAS model and R-J model are stabilized after t(2) = 2. 0 days and t(2) = 1. 50 days respectively. The attenuation rate of M(S)7. 0 earthquake sequence is normal when compare to other sequences in continental China. The forecast results of the aftershock occurrence rate and aftershock probability for the next one day show that the values of forecast results of the ETAS model always lower than the R-J model. The results of IGPE show that the ETAS model has better forecast effect than R-J model in the 95% confidence interval. The results of N-test and T-test show that, the ETAS model forecasts failure and R-J model forecast better in the early stage after mainshock occurred with unstable sequence parameters, however, in the sequence parameter stability stage, the above results are the opposite. According to the above analysis, it is possible to obtain a better forecast effect if the R-J model is used in the early stage after mainshock occurred with unstable sequence parameters in the Jiushagou M(S)7. 0 earthquake sequence, and the ETAS model is used after this time.

  • 出版日期2017-10
  • 单位中国地震局