科研之友
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摘要
Although the hardwood timber market is an important segment of the forest industry in the United States, little attention has been paid to modeling hardwood stumpage and lumber markets. Based on the annual data series from 1955 to 2014, we estimate simultaneous demand and supply models of the hardwood sawtimber stumpage market in Louisiana. A permanent structural break in 1993 is detected in the hardwood sawtimber stumpage market, and the modified cointegration test and structural vector error correction approach are used to estimate the demand for and supply of hardwood sawtimber stumpage. The results show that own-price elasticity values in both the demand and the supply equations are inelastic in the long run. Hardwood and softwood sawtimber are found to be substitutes. Moreover, the softwood timber market always leads in the feedback adjustment process and can help predict the hardwood timber price in Louisiana.
- 出版日期2017
