科研之友
微信
新浪微博
Facebook
分享链接
摘要
Dongguan is one of the most ozone-polluted city over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in China. We applied the advanced RSM/CMAQ (Responds Surface Model/ Community Multi-scale Air Quality) system to analyze the source contribution of anthropogenic emissions of NOx and VOCs for ambient O3 in Dongguan. The base-year analysis in 2014 indicates that local VOCs emissions has the largest contribution to O3 in Dongguan (18.50%) after excluding the background O3 contributions (41%) from transported regional emissions outside model domain and the natural sources. The emission reduction of NOx in the PRD can further lower the ambient O3 concentration in Dongguan when the reduction rate of NOx is greater than >13% comparing to the NOx emissions in the base year of 2014. We further used the ABaCAS-SE (Air Benefit and Cost and Attainment Assessment System-Streamlined Edition) to assess the cost-benefit of O3 pollution control scenarios in 3 future projection years, 2017, 2020 and 2025, in Dongguan. The simulation results show that the benefit/cost ratio (human health benefit over emissions control cost) is about 1.1 when the reduction rate of NOx and VOCs emissions is relatively low in 2017, and the rate will drop down to only 0.1 in 2025 when the control rates of NOx and VOCs become higher. The low rate of benefit/cost means that terminal control technologies-based scenarios is not suitable for the higher emission reduction rates because of potential lower economic feasibility. The source control policies, such as adjusting the comprehensive industrial & energy structure, popularizing cleaner procession technologies etc., should be promoted to reach the attainment goal of O3 national standard in Dongguan by 2025. However, the control benefit of PM2.5 due to NOx and VOCs emissions reduction is not considered in this study and further investigation is needed for multi-pollutant control strategies. ? 2017, Science Press. All right reserved.
