Analysis of a vector-bias malaria transmission model with application to Mexico, Sudan and Democratic Republic of the Congo

作者：Osman, Mojeeb Al-Rahman El-Nor; Li, Jinhui^*

来源：Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2019, 464: 72-84.

DOI：10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.12.033

• Mathematical model
• Transmission dynamics
• Stability analysis
• Sensitivity analysis
• Control strategies

Malaria is a deadly disease transmitted to human through the bite of infected female mosquitoes. The aim of this paper is to study the different vector-bias values between low and high transmission areas with the examples of Mexico (low) and Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo (Congo, DR) (high) during malaria transmission. We develop a malaria transmission model with vector-bias and investigate the basic reproduction number, the existence of equilibria and the corresponding globally asymptotically stable. Then, we simulate the reported cases of Mexico and Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo by World Health Organization (WHO) (WHO, 0000) and predict the direction of the disease. Our simulation results show that the most endemic country is Congo, DR with the highest vector-bias and R-0 values, followed by Sudan and Mexico with less, respectively and that the disease will die out in Mexico and persist in Sudan and Congo, DR. Furthermore, we perform sensitivity analysis of R. and give some useful comments on reducing the cases of the disease.

• 出版日期2019-3-7
• 单位华中师范大学