Nomogram for preoperative estimation of long-term survival of patients who underwent curative resection with hepatocellular carcinoma beyond Barcelona clinic liver cancer stage Al

作者：Ruan, Dan-Yun; Lin, Ze-Xiao; Wang, Tian-Tian; Zhao, Hui; Wu, Dong-Hao; Chen, Jie; Dong, Min; Lin, Qu; Wu, Xiang-Yuan^*; Li, Yang^*

来源：Oncotarget, 2016, 7(38): 61378-61389.

DOI：10.18632/oncotarget.11358

• hepatocellular carcinoma
• Barcelona clinic liver cancer stage
• resection
• nomogram
• survival

Background and Aims: This retrospective cohort study developed a prognostic nomogram to predict the survival of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients diagnosed as beyond Barcelona clinic liver cancer stage Al after resection and evaluated the possibility of using the nomogram as a treatment algorithm reference. @@@ Results: The predictors included in the nomogram were total tumour volume, Child-Turcotte-Pugh class, plasma fibrinogen and portal vein tumour thrombus. Patients diagnosed as beyond Al were stratified into low-, medium- and high-risk groups using nomogram scores of 0 and 51 with the total points of 225. Patients within Al exhibited similar recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) rates compared with the low-risk group. Patients in the medium-risk group exhibited a similar OS but a worse RFS rates compared with patients within Al. The high-risk group was associated with worse RFS and OS rates compared with the patients within Al (3-year RFS rates, 27.0% vs. 60.3%, P < 0.001; 3-year OS rates, 49.2% vs. 83.1%, P < 0.001). @@@ Methods: A total of 352 HCC patients undergoing curative resection from September 2003 to December 2012 were included to develop a nomogram to predict overall survival after resection. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis were used to identify prognostic factors. A visually orientated nomogram was constructed using a Cox proportional hazards model. @@@ Conclusions: This user-friendly nomogram offers an individualized preoperative recurrence risk estimation and stratification for HCC patients beyond Al undergoing resection. Resection should be considered the first-line treatment for low-risk patients.

• 出版日期2016-9-20
• 单位中山大学