科研之友
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摘要
The residential sector constitutes a major energy consumer, particularly on account of its needs for space heating. Offering a high leverage potential, this sector is a suitable starting point for greenhouse gas mitigation policies. By providing predictions of the energy demand of building stocks, bottom-up building energy models represent a first step toward deriving strategies for abatement of detrimental effects related to housing energy use. This article aims at evaluating the performance of a simplified bottom-up housing energy model. A global sensitivity analysis was performed to study the model's structure and the impact of individual model parameters. Moreover, an extensive final energy consumption data set allowed for an in-depth comparison of this model with primary data in the scope of a case study in a Swiss municipality. On an individual building scale, the model fails to accurately simulate the energy demand. Deviations can be attributed to a range of factors, such as variability in occupants' behavior and problems of representativeness in the underlying statistical database. Nevertheless, such under- or overestimations level off on an aggregated scale. In particular, the model reproduces the overall characteristics of the residential building stock's heating demand well. It is therefore well suited as a building stock model and provides a promising basis for an extended assessment of housing energy demands. In future research work, we will apply this model to a larger region in order to study various types of settlements from a life cycle perspective and to derive targeted measures aimed at reducing environmental impacts.
- 出版日期2017-4
