Development and External Validation of Risk Scores for Cardiovascular Hospitalization and Rehospitalization in Patients With Diabetes

作者：Yu, Dahai; Cai, Yamei; Graffy, Jonathan; Holman, Daniel; Zhao, Zhanzheng^*; Simmons, David

来源：Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism, 2018, 103(3): 1122-1129.

DOI：10.1210/jc.2017-02293

• PREDICTION MODEL
• PEER SUPPORT
• ADMISSIONS
• PEOPLE
• EVENTS
• ASSOCIATION
• PRESSURE
• CARE

Context: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a common and costly reason for hospitalization and rehospitalization among patients with type 2 diabetes. @@@ Objective: This study aimed to develop and externally validate two risk- prediction models for cardiovascular hospitalization and cardiovascular rehospitalization. @@@ Design: Two independent prospective cohorts. @@@ Setting: The derivation cohort includes 4704 patients with type 2 diabetes from 18 general practices in Cambridgeshire. The validation cohort comprises 1121 patients with type 2 diabetes from post-trial follow- up data. @@@ Main Outcome Measure: Cardiovascular hospitalization over 2 years and cardiovascular rehospitalization after 90 days of the prior CVD hospitalization. @@@ Results: The absolute rate of cardiovascular hospitalization and rehospitalization was 12.5% and 6.7% in the derivation cohort and 16.3% and 7.0% in the validation cohort. Discrimination of the models was similar in both cohorts, with C statistics above 0.70 and excellent calibration of observed and predicted risks. @@@ Conclusion: Two prediction models that quantify risks of cardiovascular hospitalization and rehospitalization have been developed and externally validated. They are based on a small number of clinical measurements that are available for patients with type 2 diabetes in many developed countries in primary care settings and could serve as the tools to screen the population at high risk of cardiovascular hospitalization and rehospitalization.

• 出版日期2018-3
• 单位郑州大学