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摘要
One of the main research problems related to programming iron and steel industry development is forecasting market size and prediction of consumers' needs. The paper presents the results of a research on the application of Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation (ABMS) idea to behaviour forecasting of steel products market. The goal of our research is to verify the usefulness of ABMS method for the assessment of sales volumes for steel products manufacturers depending on the marketing strategy they use, with special respect to the utilitarian parameters they offer. This method allows us to observe the behaviour of a specified environment, represented by agents making autonomous decisions. In our case, these agents are manufacturers, intermediaries and consumers of steel products, while the decisions are based on choosing the deliverer by a specified customer. It was assumed that customers' decisions can be described by either the "if - then" rules or with the appliance of AHP analytic method, used for ranking sets of variants. One of the goals of the research was to find out whether both the methods of behaviour representation give similar results and to fix the effectiveness and scope of their appliance. Results obtained for both variants proved the assumed research presumptions to be correct. Further researches will focus on a trial to establish a model allowing to assess the changes in market ranking thanks to a very precisely described change in manufacturer's offer (e.g. upgrading a specified quality parameter of the product).
- 出版日期2008
