A Bayesian Integration of Volumetric and Material Balance Analyses to Quantify Uncertainty in Original Hydrocarbons in Place

作者：Ogele C; Daoud A M; McVay D A^*; Lee W J

来源：Petroleum Science and Technology, 2012, 30(19): 2046-2065.

DOI：10.1080/10916466.2010.509210

• Bayesian
• hydrocarbons in place
• material balance
• uncertainty
• volumetric

The authors use a Bayesian formulation to integrate volumetric and material balance analyses. Specifically, they apply Bayes%26apos;s rule to the Havlena and Odeh material balance equation to estimate original oil in place, N, and relative gas-cap size, m, for a gas-cap drive oil reservoir The authors consider uncertainty and correlation in the volumetric estimates of N and m, as well as uncertainty in the pressure data. They then quantify uncertainty in the estimates of N and m resulting from the combined volumetric and material balance analyses. By combining the analyses, each reduces the uncertainty of the other resulting in more accurate in-place estimates than from the separate analyses.

• 出版日期2012