科研之友
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摘要
Forest management involves considerable amounts of uncertainty related to future timber prices and tree growth. A new element in forest-management planning is climate-induced change in tree growth. This study used stochastic adaptive optimization to derive optimal adaptive rules for the management of a mixed stand of Norway spruce, Scots pine and birch, when (1) both price and growth were stochastic and (2) there was a climate-induced growth trend. Optimized reservation-price function was used as the adaptive rule for final felling. The optimal times of thinning treatments were described by rules that related the thinning year to the growth rate of the stand. The results suggest that an improving growth trend slightly shortens optimal rotation lengths. On the other hand, risk related to timber price and growth tended to increase the rotation length. Increasing timber-price volatility increased the reservation price and rotation length. When risk and risk-aversion increased, maintaining a more diverse stand structure was profitable.
- 出版日期2012-10
