A Framework to Address Uncertainties in Energy Policy Formulation

作者：Papadelis S; Flamos A^*; Psarras J

来源：Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning and Policy , 2013, 8(3): 270-278.

DOI：10.1080/15567240903419377

• deep uncertainty
• energy policy
• hedging strategies
• policy-relevant scenarios
• robust decision making

Energy policy formulation is the process of identifying the policy options mixture with the greatest potential to achieve the long-term goals for an energy system%26apos;s economic and environmental performance. However, the impact of a policy option adopted today will be visible in a time frame that exceeds the decade. In fact, the longer the time for a policy%26apos;s impact to become visible, the more vulnerable the policy is to unforeseen future eventualities. This fact makes difficult and even misleading the attempt to quantify the probabilities for the realization of the different possible future outcomes. This article aims to present a methodological framework that provides policy makers with the ability to identify the conditions under which their choice about a policy%26apos;s implementation would change, as well as the policy option combinations that are characterized by the greatest immunity in relation to the uncertainty of all possible future outcomes.

• 出版日期2013-7-1