A mathematical model for assessing the impact of poverty on yaws eradication

作者：Mushayabasa S^*; Bhunu C P; Webb C; Dhlamini M

来源：Applied Mathematical Modelling, 2012, 36(4): 1653-1667.

DOI：10.1016/j.apm.2011.09.022

• Yaws
• Resource-constrained
• Stability

A neglected disease with a nearly forgotten name is making a comeback following a global control programme that almost eradicated it more than forty years ago. Until the 1970s the prevalence of non-venereal treponematosis, including yaws, was greatly reduced after worldwide mass treatment. In 2005, cases were again reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. A deterministic model is formulated to investigate the impact of poverty on yaws eradication. Threshold parameters are determined and stabilities analysed. The reproductive number was also used to assess the impact of birth rate in resource-constrained families on the dynamics of yaws. The model was shown to be globally stable whenever the associated reproductive number is less than a unity. Using the Lyapunov function it was proved that whenever the associated reproductive number is greater than a unity an endemic equilibrium exists and is globally asymptotically stable. Results from this theoretical study suggests that if the population of children in the community is dominated by those from resource-constrained families, then yaws eradication will remain difficulty to attain. Thus, more needs to be done in addressing issues such as high fertility rate, overcrowding, poor sanitation, etc. and poverty in general so that yaws epidemic which was successfully controlled several decades ago will cease to reemerge and can easily be eradicated.

• 出版日期2012-4