Markets vs. polls as election predictors: An historical assessment

作者：Erikson Robert S; Wlezien Christopher^*

来源：Electoral Studies, 2012, 31(3): 532-539.

DOI：10.1016/j.electstud.2012.04.008

• Prediction markets
• Polls
• Presidential elections
• Forecasting
• Horserace

Prediction markets have drawn considerable attention in recent years as a tool for forecasting elections. But how accurate are they? Do they outperform the polls, as some scholars argue? Do prices in election markets carry information beyond the horserace in the latest polls? This paper assesses the accuracy of US presidential election betting markets in years before and after opinion polling was introduced. Our results are provocative. First, we find that market prices are far better predictors in the period without polls than when polls were available. Second, we find that market prices of the pre-poll era predicted elections almost on par with polls following the introduction of scientific polling. Finally, when we have both market prices and polls, prices add nothing to election prediction beyond polls. To be sure, early election markets were (surprisingly) good at extracting campaign information without scientific polling to guide them. For more recent markets, candidate prices largely follow the polls.

• 出版日期2012-9