Modeling Geographically Correlated Failures to Assess Network Vulnerability

作者:Wang, Xiaoliang*; Chen, Mingzhi; Lu, Sanglu
来源:IEEE Transactions on Communications, 2018, 66(12): 6317-6328.
DOI:10.1109/TCOMM.2018.2864301

摘要

Current communication networks are facing more and more threats from large-scale regional damages, such as natural disasters (e.g., earthquake or tornado) and physical attacks (e.g., electromagnetic pulse attack or dragging anchors). Recently, several region failure models have been proposed to evaluate the impact of such geographically correlated failures on communication networks. These works mainly adopt a kind of "deterministic" models, where network components within the affected area would fail simultaneously. Such failure models simplify the analysis but may fail to reflect some important behaviors of attacks and thus cause significant over- or underestimation of region failures. To emulate the impact of realistic catastrophe events such as earthquake and tornado, this paper introduces two probabilistic failure models: 1) a concentric circle model and 2) a line segment model. In the probabilistic models, both the location and effect of the damage are treated as random events. The failure may randomly incur on the entire network plane, and the failure probability of a device depends on many factors, e.g., link length and distance to the damage center. We develop an efficient grid partition-based scheme to estimate the network vulnerability. Based on the grid partition scheme, we further develop a sampling scheme to significantly reduce the computation cost. The probability model helps us more deeply understand the network behaviors under region failure and facilitates the design and maintenance of future highly survivable mission critical networks.