科研之友
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摘要
The process for the enhanced-oil-recovery (EOR) strategic decision is a thorny process that depends on proper evaluation, rational understanding of complex relationships, and quantitative assessment of multiple categories, including economic considerations, dynamic field production, reservoir numerical simulation, and other relevant elements. Using the Delphi-AHP-TOPSIS method (Joshi et al. 2011), which combines the Delphi method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), we develop and present in this paper a decision-making work flow to meet this challenge. This technological process is divided into three phases. The first phase is the Delphi method, in which key performance factors and subfactors are identified and quantitatively evaluated using expert judgment. The second is the AHP, in which a synthesis of the influence of factors and subfactors is acquired with a pairwise-comparison matrix. The third phase is the TOPSIS, in which the final ranking of candidate EOR projects is given using the monotonic utility function. A typical polymer-flooding EOR decision-making case is presented for better understanding. The proposed work flow helps geoscientists acquire a comprehensive understanding of the factors in an existing project and select the optimal alternative. The approach not only minimizes the decision makers' bias, combining the influence of technical and nontechnical factors, but also helps practitioners respond quickly to the oil market and reservoir dynamic performance rationally. This is, to our knowledge, the first time that the Delphi-AHP-TOPSIS method has been introduced to EOR decision making in the petroleum field.
- 出版日期2018-5
- 单位中国石油大学（北京）
