An Epidemic Avian Influenza Prediction Model Based on Google Trends

作者：Lu, Yi; Wang, Shuo; Wang, Jianying; Zhou, Guangya; Zhang, Qiang; Zhou, Xiang^*; Niu, Bing^*; Chen, Qin^*; Chou, Kuo-Chen

来源：Letters in Organic Chemistry, 2019, 16(4): 303-310.

DOI：10.2174/1570178615666180724103325

• Google trends
• H5N2
• avian influenza
• prediction model
• multiple line regression model
• Chou's intuitive metrics

The occurrence of epidemic avian influenza (EM) not only hinders the development of a country's agricultural economy, but also seriously affects human beings' life. Recently, the information collected from Google Trends has been increasingly used to predict various epidemics. In this study, using the relevant keywords in Google Trends as well as the multiple linear regression approach, a model was developed to predict the occurrence of epidemic avian influenza. It was demonstrated by rigorous cross-validations that the success rates achieved by the new model were quite high, indicating the predictor will become a very useful tool for hospitals and health providers.

• 出版日期2019
• 单位上海大学; 同济大学; 电子科技大学