A Bayesian model and numerical algorithm for CBM availability maximization

作者：Jiang Rui; Kim Michael Jong; Makis Viliam^*

来源：Annals of Operations Research, 2012, 196(1): 333-348.

DOI：10.1007/s10479-011-1013-1

• Availability maximization
• Semi-Markov decision process
• Hidden Markov model
• Condition-based maintenance
• Multivariate Bayesian control chart

In this paper, we consider an availability maximization problem for a partially observable system subject to random failure. System deterioration is described by a hidden, continuous-time homogeneous Markov process. While the system is operational, multivariate observations that are stochastically related to the system state are sampled through condition monitoring at discrete time points. The objective is to design an optimal multivariate Bayesian control chart that maximizes the long-run expected average availability per unit time. We have developed an efficient computational algorithm in the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework and showed that the availability maximization problem is equivalent to solving a parameterized system of linear equations. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of our approach, and a comparison with the traditional age-based replacement policy is also provided.

• 出版日期2012-7