科研之友
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摘要
Poland reports its greenhouse gas emissions annually to the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This report also includes an estimation of uncertainty; for Poland, a simplified method based on error propagation is currently used. In this paper the authors estimate uncertainty concerning agricultural emissions in Poland in 2011 using an alternative Monte Carlo analysis. They compare the results from these simulations against the error propagation method. For methane emissions, the simulation results are similar to the simplified uncertainty estimation method and give a mean value of 576.8 Gg with an uncertainty range of -21.7% to +25.8%. The more pronounced differences between methods are for nitrous oxide emissions, for which the mean value of 73.5 Gg N2O was calculated, but the uncertainty is more asymmetrical, ranging from -50.0% to +79.9%. The policy implications of these differences are outlined.
- 出版日期2014-3
