Determination of regionalised extreme water levels for the North Sea Coast of Schleswig-Holstein

作者：Arns Arne^*; Wahl Thomas; Dangendorf Soenke; Muder**ach Christoph; Jensen Juergen

来源：Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung, 2013, 57(6): 264-278.

DOI：10.5675/HyWa_2013,6_1

• Extreme value statistics
• Germany
• hydrodynamic modelling
• North Sea
• regionalisation
• return periods
• storm surges

The German North Sea coastline is protected by coastal defence structures with heights derived from design water levels. The calculation of design water levels, however, varies between federal states. In Schleswig-Holstein e.g. design water levels are calculated using statistical analysis of observed extreme sea-level events. In some regions, however, this is a challenging task as water level records are not available or cover shorter time periods as required for undertaking extreme value analysis. To transfer water level information measured at gauged sites in neighbouring areas to ungauged sites, the concept of regionalisation is adopted and adjusted from a riverine (where previously applied) to a coastal setting. This innovative approach combines numerical modelling and a bias-correction method proposed in this paper. Using a recommended procedure to conduct extreme value analyses from a companion study, water level return periods suitable for designing coastal defences are estimated along the entire coastline of Schleswig-Holstein, including the offshore islands.

• 出版日期2013-12