A semiparametric spatio-temporal model for solar irradiance data

作者：Patrick Joshua D^*; Harvill Jane L; Hansen Clifford W

来源：Renewable Energy, 2016, 87: 15-30.

DOI：10.1016/j.renene.2015.10.001

• Irradiance
• Spatio-temporal model
• Nonseparability
• Lattice data
• Semiparametric time series

We evaluate semiparametric spatio-temporal models for global horizontal irradiance at high spatial and temporal resolution. These models represent the spatial domain as a lattice and are capable of predicting irradiance at lattice points, given data measured at other lattice points. Using data from a 1.2 MW PV plant located in Lanai, Hawaii, we show that a semiparametric model can be more accurate than simple interpolation between sensor locations. We investigate spatio-temporal models with separable and nonseparable covariance structures and find no evidence to support assuming a separable covariance structure. Our results indicate a promising approach for modeling irradiance at high spatial resolution consistent with available ground-based measurements. Such modeling may find application in design, valuation, and operation of fleets of utility-scale photovoltaic power systems.

• 出版日期2016-3