A mathematical model of the indirect effects of rotavirus vaccination

作者：van Effelterre T^*; Soriano Gabarro M; Debrus S; Newbern E Claire; Gray J

来源：Epidemiology and Infection, 2010, 138(6): 884-897.

DOI：10.1017/S0950268809991245

• Herd protection
• mathematical model
• rotavirus
• vaccination

Rotavirus (RV) infections progressively confer natural immunity against subsequent infection. Similarly to natural infection, vaccination with a live attenuated vaccine potentially reduces RV transmission and induces herd protection. A mathematical transmission model was developed to project the impact of a vaccination programme on the incidence of RV infection and disease for five countries in the European Union. With vaccination coverage rates of 70%, 90% and 95% the model predicted that, in addition to the direct effect of vaccination, herd protection induced a reduction in RV-related gastroenteritis (GE) incidence of 25%, 22% and 20%, respectively, for RV-GE of any severity, and of 19%, 15%, and 13%, respectively, for moderate-to-severe RV-GE, 5 years after implementation of a vaccination programme.

• 出版日期2010-6