Mixed model for interoccurrence times of earthquakes based on the expectation-maximization algorithm

作者：Tahernia Nadia^*; Khodabin Morteza; Mirzaei Noorbakhsh

来源：Acta Geophysica, 2011, 59(5): 872-890.

DOI：10.2478/s11600-011-0028-y

• expectation-maximization algorithm
• mixture model
• information criteria
• generalized gamma family
• interoccurrence time

In this paper, the goodness-of-fit test based on a convex combination of Akaike and Bayesian information criteria is used to explain the features of interoccurrence times of earthquakes. By analyzing the seismic catalog of Iran for different tectonic settings, we have found that the probability distributions of time intervals between successive earthquakes can be described by the generalized normal distribution. This indicates that the sequence of successive earthquakes is not a Poisson process. It is found that by decreasing the threshold magnitude, the interoccurrence time distribution changes from the generalized normal distribution to the gamma distribution in some seismotectonic regions. As a new insight, the probability distribution of time intervals between earthquakes is described as a mixture distribution via the expectation-maximization algorithm.

• 出版日期2011-10