Association of US tornado occurrence with monthly environmental parameters

作者：Tippett Michael K^*; Sobel Adam H; Camargo Suzana J

来源：Geophysical Research Letters, 2012, 39: L02801.

DOI：10.1029/2011GL050368

Monthly U.S. tornado numbers are here related to observation-based monthly averaged atmospheric parameters. Poisson regression is used to form an index which captures the climatological spatial distribution and seasonal variation of tornado occurrence, as well as year-to-year variability, and provides a framework for extended range forecasts of tornado activity. Computing the same index with predicted atmospheric parameters from a comprehensive forecast model gives some evidence of the predictability of monthly tornado activity. Citation: Tippett, M. K., A. H. Sobel, and S. J. Camargo (2012), Association of U.S. tornado occurrence with monthly environmental parameters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L02801, doi:10.1029/2011GL050368.

• 出版日期2012-1-18