摘要

In view of the non-related options MNL model prediction error can lead to independence, taking into account the special status of Tibet tourism in the country, the choice of Lhasa NL model passenger travel behavior research, and the introduction of subjective intent travelers choose the correction coefficient a. Select attractions and travel mode, respectively, as the level 2 and level 1 Select limb to travel costs, travel time, age, income, whether private cars as a utility variable, based on the level of a division on the proposed two methods of transportation, it was constructed with the intention of passenger travel and transportation characteristics as the starting point of NL model. The parameters of the model are calibrated by using the data of Lhasa passenger travel survey, test results show that the intention to passenger travel as the starting point of division manner more consistent with the actual situation. After introducing the correction coefficient of the subjective intention, the relative error of the prediction is reduced from 11.82% to 9.99%.