Application of a validated prediction model for in vitro fertilization: comparison of live birth rates and multiple birth rates with 1 embryo transferred over 2 cycles vs 2 embryos in 1 cycle

作者：Barbara Luke; Brown Morton B; Wantman Ethan; Stern Judy E; Baker Valerie L; Widra Eric; Coddington Charles C; Gibbons William E; Van Voorhis Bradley J; Ball G David

来源：American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology, 2015, 212(5): 676.e1.

DOI：10.1016/j.ajog.2015.02.005

• assisted reproductive technology
• live birth
• multiple birth
• prediction model

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to use a validated prediction model to examine whether single embryo transfer (SET) over 2 cycles results in live birth rates (LBR) comparable with 2 embryos transferred (DET) in 1 cycle and reduces the probability of a multiple birth (ie, multiple birth rate [MBR]).
STUDY DESIGN: Prediction models of LBR and MBR for a woman considering assisted reproductive technology developed from linked cycles from the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology Clinic Outcome Reporting System for 2006-2012 were used to compare SET over 2 cycles with DET in 1 cycle. The prediction model was based on a woman's age, body mass index (BMI), gravidity, previous full-term births, infertility diagnoses, embryo state, number of embryos transferred, and number of cycles.
RESULTS: To demonstrate the effect of the number of embryos transferred (1 or 2), the LBRs and MBRs were estimated for women with a single infertility diagnosis (male factor, ovulation disorders, diminished ovarian reserve, and unexplained); nulligravid; BMI of 20, 25, 30, and 35 kg/m(2); and ages 25, 35, and 40 years old by cycle (first or second). The cumulative LBR over 2 cycles with SET was similar to or better than the LBR with DET in a single cycle (for example, for women with the diagnosis of ovulation disorders: 35 years old; BMI, 30 kg/m(2); 54.4% vs 46.5%; and for women who are 40 years old: BMI, 30 kg/m(2); 31.3% vs 28.9%). The MBR with DET in 1 cycle was 32.8% for women 35 years old and 20.9% for women 40 years old; with SET, the cumulative MBR was 2.7% and 1.6%, respectively.
CONCLUSION: The application of this validated predictive model demonstrated that the cumulative LBR is as good as or better with SET over 2 cycles than with DET in 1 cycle, while greatly reducing the probability of a multiple birth.

• 出版日期2015-5