A simple numerical tool to infer whether a species is extinct

作者：Lee Tamsin E^*

来源：Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2014, 5(8): 791-796.

DOI：10.1111/2041-210X.12227

• Extinction
• Uncertain sightings
• Survey effort
• Excel

1. Including uncertain sightings when inferring extinction of a species is relatively new and has proven to be significant. However, including uncertain sightings leads to non-trivial mathematical problems which are inaccessible to many ecologists.
2. I use the Pohnpei Mountain Starling Aplonis pelzelni to describe an Excel spreadsheet which infers extinction from a sighting record. The spreadsheet implements a Bayesian model which includes uncertainty around the prior, uncertain sightings and survey effort.
3. Survey effort has not been included in extinction models before, but clearly plays a significant role in extinction estimates, which the Pohnpei Mountain Starling example demonstrates.
4. The spreadsheet (included as supplementary material) is user-friendly, fast and accessible on Windows.

• 出版日期2014-8