Modeling foreseeable risk factors affecting the contractor’s profit in the international EPC project

作者：Zhang Yun Hua; Feng Jing Chun; Li Xin Peng

来源：International Journal of Simulation: Systems, Science and Technology , 2016, 17(37): 29.1-29.8.

DOI：10.5013/IJSSST.a.17.37.29

• Decision framework
• EPC projects
• Expert knowledge
• FIDIC silver book
• Probability trees
• Reservoir engineering
• Risk factors
• Risk Identification

It is generally accepted that risk management is an important issue in project management, especially for contractors in the international EPC project. This paper aims to develop a systemic decision framework for contractors to address the foreseeable risk factors affecting the profit performance. Firstly, a profit model is developed through analyzing the mechanism and identifying the risk factors of the project profit based FIDIC Silver Book and the contractual provisions from the perspective of contractor. To solve the model, this paper presents a decision framework which transforms the risk identification and experiential expert knowledge into a more usable and systematic quantitative-based analysis by the Probability Tree Method. Risk events are assessed by this method and the appropriate strategies are then suggested. M Reservoir Engineering in Sri Lanka is presented to illustrate how the method works.

• 出版日期2016
• 单位河海大学