Market, welfare and land-use implications of lignocellulosic bioethanol in Hawai'i

作者：Mochizuki Junko^*; Coffman Makena; Yanagida John F

来源：Renewable Energy, 2015, 76: 102-114.

DOI：10.1016/j.renene.2014.10.071

• Computable general equilibrium modeling
• Lignocellulosic bioethanol
• Land use impact
• Welfare impact
• Greenhouse gas emissions

This article examines land-use, market and welfare implications of lignocellulosic bioethanol production in Hawai'i to satisfy 10% and 20% of the State's gasoline demand in line with the State's ethanol blending mandate and Alternative Fuels Standard (AFS). A static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to evaluate four alternative support mechanisms for bioethanol. Namely: i) a federal blending tax credit, ii) a long-term purchase contract, iii) a state production subsidy financed by a lump-sum tax and iv) a state production subsidy financed by an ad valorem gasoline tax. We find that because Hawaii-produced bioethanol is relatively costly, all scenarios are welfare reducing for Hawaii residents: estimated between -0.14% and -0.32%. Unsurprisingly, Hawaii's economy and its residents fair best under the federal blending tax credit scenario, with a positive impact to gross state product of $49 million. Otherwise, impacts to gross state product are negative (up to -$63 million). We additionally find that Hawaii-based bioethanol is not likely to offer substantial greenhouse gas emissions savings in comparison to imported biofuel, and as such the policy cost per tonne of emissions displaced ranges between $130 and $2100/tonne of CO(2)e. The policies serve to increase the value of agricultural lands, where we estimate that the value of pasture land could as well.

• 出版日期2015-4
• 单位国际应用系统分析学会(IIASA)