Artificial Neural Network Model for Predicting 5-Year Mortality After Surgery for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Nationwide Study

作者：Shi Hon Yi; Lee King Teh; Wang Jhi Joung; Sun Ding Ping; Lee Hao Hsien; Chiu Chong Chi^*

来源：Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery, 2012, 16(11): 2126-2131.

DOI：10.1007/s11605-012-1986-3

• Hepatocellular carcinoma
• Artificial neural network
• Logistic regression
• Five-year mortality rate

To validate the use of artificial neural network (ANN) models for predicting 5-year mortality in HCC and to compare their predictive capability with that of logistic regression (LR) models. %26lt;br%26gt;This study retrospectively compared LR and ANN models based on initial clinical data for 22,926 HCC surgery patients from 1998 to 2009. A global sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the relative significance of input parameters in the system model and to rank the importance of variables. %26lt;br%26gt;Compared to the LR models, the ANN models had a better accuracy rate in 96.57 % of cases, a better Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic in 0.34 of cases, and a better receiver operating characteristic curves in 88.51 % of cases. Surgeon volume was the most influential (sensitive) parameter affecting 5-year mortality followed by hospital volume and Charlson co-morbidity index. %26lt;br%26gt;In comparison with the conventional LR model, the ANN model in this study was more accurate in predicting 5-year mortality. Further studies of this model may consider the effect of a more detailed database that includes complications and clinical examination findings as well as more detailed outcome data.

• 出版日期2012-11