Dynamics and determinants of land change in India: integrating satellite data with village socioeconomics

作者：Meiyappan Prasanth^*; Roy Parth S; Sharma Yeshu; Ramachandran Reshma M; Joshi Pawan K; DeFries Ruth S; Jain Atul K^*

来源：Regional Environmental Change, 2017, 17(3): 753-766.

DOI：10.1007/s10113-016-1068-2

• Land use change
• Drivers
• Causes
• Deforestation
• Agriculture
• Food security

We examine the dynamics and spatial determinants of land change in India by integrating decadal land cover maps (1985-1995-2005) from a wall-to-wall analysis of Landsat images with spatiotemporal socioeconomic database for similar to 630,000 villages in India. We reinforce our results through collective evidence from synthesis of 102 case studies that incorporate field knowledge of the causes of land change in India. We focus on cropland-fallow land conversions, and forest area changes (excludes non-forest tree categories including commercial plantations). We show that cropland to fallow conversions are prominently associated with lack of irrigation and capital, male agricultural labor shortage, and fragmentation of land holdings. We find gross forest loss is substantial and increased from similar to 23,810 km(2) (1985-1995) to similar to 25,770 km(2) (1995-2005). The gross forest gain also increased from similar to 6000 km(2) (1985-1995) to similar to 7440 km(2) (1995-2005). Overall, India experienced a net decline in forest by similar to 18,000 km(2) (gross loss-gross gain) consistently during both decades. We show that the major source of forest loss was cropland expansion in areas of low cropland productivity (due to soil degradation and lack of irrigation), followed by industrial development and mining/quarrying activities, and excessive economic dependence of villages on forest resources.

• 出版日期2017-3