Anthropogenically driven environmental changes shift the ecological dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome

作者：Tian, Huaiyu; Yu, Pengbo; Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Cazelles, Bernard; Yang, Jing; Tan, Hua; Huang, Shanqian; Cui, Yujun; Dong, Lu; Ma, Chaofeng; Ma, Changan; Zhou, Sen; Laine, Marko; Wu, Xiaoxu; Zhang, Yanyun; Wang, Jingjun; Yang, Ruifu; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Xu, Bing^*

来源：PLoS Pathogens, 2017, 13(1): e1006198.

DOI：10.1371/journal.ppat.1006198

• SIN-NOMBRE-VIRUS
• POPULATION-DYNAMICS
• HANTAVIRUS INFECTIONS
• TIME-SERIES
• ANIMAL RESERVOIR
• CLIMATE-CHANGE
• HANTAAN VIRUS
• VECTOR-BORNE
• DEER MICE
• EL-NINO

Zoonoses are increasingly recognized as an important burden on global public health in the 21 st century. High-resolution, long-term field studies are critical for assessing both the baseline and future risk scenarios in a world of rapid changes. We have used a three-decadelong field study on hantavirus, a rodent-borne zoonotic pathogen distributed worldwide, coupled with epidemiological data from an endemic area of China, and show that the shift in the ecological dynamics of Hantaan virus was closely linked to environmental fluctuations at the human-wildlife interface. We reveal that environmental forcing, especially rainfall and resource availability, exert important cascading effects on intra-annual variability in the wildlife reservoir dynamics, leading to epidemics that shift between stable and chaotic regimes. Our models demonstrate that bimodal seasonal epidemics result from a powerful seasonality in transmission, generated from interlocking cycles of agricultural phenology and rodent behavior driven by the rainy seasons.

• 出版日期2017-1
• 单位遥感科学国家重点实验室; 清华大学; 病原微生物生物安全国家重点实验室; 西安市疾病预防控制中心; 北京师范大学