An Evidential Reasoning-Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process

作者：Wu, Bing; Yan, Xinping; Wang, Yang; Soares, C. Guedes^*

来源：Risk Analysis, 2017, 37(10): 1936-1957.

DOI：10.1111/risa.12757

• CREAM
• evidential reasoning
• human reliability analysis
• maritime accident process
• safety engineering

This article proposes a modified cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for estimating the human error probability in the maritime accident process on the basis of an evidential reasoning approach. This modified CREAM is developed to precisely quantify the linguistic variables of the common performance conditions and to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty caused by incomplete information in the existing CREAM models. Moreover, this article views maritime accident development from the sequential perspective, where a scenario- and barrier-based framework is proposed to describe the maritime accident process. This evidential reasoning-based CREAM approach together with the proposed accident development framework are applied to human reliability analysis of a ship capsizing accident. It will facilitate subjective human reliability analysis in different engineering systems where uncertainty exists in practice.

• 出版日期2017-10
• 单位武汉理工大学