A Versatile Probability Model of Photovoltaic Generation Using Pair Copula Construction

作者：Wu, Wei; Wang, Keyou^*; Han, Bei; Li, Guojie; Jiang, Xiuchen; Crow, Mariesa L.

来源：IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, 2015, 6(4): 1337-1345.

DOI：10.1109/TSTE.2015.2434934

• Multiple dependence
• pair copula
• photovoltaic (PV) generation
• probabilistic load flow (PLF)
• simplification

Photovoltaic (PV) generation is increasingly popular in power systems. The nonlinear dependence associated with a large number of distributed PV sources adds the complexity to construct an accurate probability model and negatively affects confidence levels and reliability, thereby resulting in a more challenging operation of the systems. Most probability models have many restrictions when constructing multiple PV sources with complex dependence. This paper proposes a versatile probability model of PV generation on the basis of pair copula construction. In order to tackle the computational burden required to construct pair copula in high-dimensional cases, a systematic simplification technique is utilized that can significantly reduce the computational effort while preserving satisfactory precision. The proposed method can simplify the modeling procedure and provide a flexible and optimal probability model for the PV generation with complex dependence. The proposed model is tested using a set of historical data from colocated PV sites. It is then applied to the probabilistic load flow (PLF) study of the IEEE 118-bus system. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed model.

• 出版日期2015-10
• 单位上海交通大学