Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction

作者：Slingo Julia^*; Palmer Tim

来源：Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2011, 369(1956): 4751-4767.

DOI：10.1098/rsta.2011.0161

• uncertainty
• climate prediction
• weather forecasting
• probabilities
• ensemble prediction system

Following Lorenz's seminal work on chaos theory in the 1960s, probabilistic approaches to prediction have come to dominate the science of weather and climate forecasting. This paper gives a perspective on Lorenz's work and how it has influenced the ways in which we seek to represent uncertainty in forecasts on all lead times from hours to decades. It looks at how model uncertainty has been represented in probabilistic prediction systems and considers the challenges posed by a changing climate. Finally, the paper considers how the uncertainty in projections of climate change can be addressed to deliver more reliable and confident assessments that support decision-making on adaptation and mitigation.

• 出版日期2011-12-13