Anomalously heavy monthly and seasonal precipitation in the Polish Carpathian Mountains and their foreland during the years 1881-2010

作者：Twardosz Robert^*; Cebulska Marta; Walanus Adam

来源：Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2016, 126(1-2): 323-337.

DOI：10.1007/s00704-015-1570-3

The paper addresses the frequency, amount and geographic coverage of anomalously heavy precipitation in southern Poland in relation to atmospheric circulation at the monthly and seasonal scales between 1881 and 2010. The Carpathian Mountains and their foreland were selected for the study as an area known for its high precipitation totals and frequent precipitation-triggered natural disasters, such as floods and landslides. Records from 18 stations were used to identify anomalously heavy precipitation (AHP) defined for the purposes of the study, as the top quartile (Q (75 %)) plus 1.5 times the interquartile gap (H) of the precipitation total (P aeyen Q (75 %) + 1.5H). The study found that most cases of AHP were recorded at one single station each. This suggests that, in addition, to the influence of circulation, local factors also play a major role in the formation of particularly heavy precipitation. The greatest absolute anomalously high precipitation totals were recorded in two disparate parts of the study area: (i) its western part exposed to wet air masses from over the Atlantic Ocean brought in by the dominant western circulation in the temperate zone and (ii) elevated parts of its south-eastern part. Two months with AHP (AHP months) occurred over the entire area (18 stations) in May 1940 and 2010. The latter case had both the greatest absolute totals (over 500 mm) and relative totals defined as their ratio to the long-term average (500 %), and it triggered a catastrophic flood in the Upper Vistula basin.

• 出版日期2016-10