Hidden variables in a Dynamic Bayesian Network identify ecosystem level change

作者：Uusitalo Laura^*; Tomczak Maciej T; Mueller Karulis Barbel; Putnis Ivars; Trifonova Neda; Tucker Allan

来源：Ecological Informatics, 2018, 45: 9-15.

DOI：10.1016/j.ecoinf.2018.03.003

• Dynamic Bayesian Network
• Hidden variable
• Ecosystem modelling
• Baltic Sea
• Gotland Basin

Ecosystems are known to change in terms of their structure and functioning over time. Modelling this change is a challenge, however, as data are scarce, and models often assume that the relationships between ecosystem components are invariable over time. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) with hidden variables have been proposed as a method to overcome this challenge, as the hidden variables can capture the unobserved processes. In this paper, we fit a series of DBNs with different hidden variable structures to a system known to have undergone a major structural change, i.e. the Baltic Sea food web. The exact setup of the hidden variables did not considerably affect the result, and the hidden variables picked up a pattern that agrees with previous research on the system dynamics.

• 出版日期2018-5