科研之友
微信
新浪微博
Facebook
分享链接
摘要
To investigate the diffusion of products in the market, this paper proposes a viral product diffusionmodel using an epidemiological approach. This model presents the process of product diffusion through the dynamics of human behaviors. Based on the stability theory of Ordinary Differential Equations, we demonstrate the conditions under which a product in the market persists or dies out eventually. Next, we use Google data to validate the model. Fitting results illustrate that the viral product diffusion model not only depicts the steady growth process of products, but also describes the whole diffusion process during which the products increase at the initial stage and then gradually decrease and sometimes even exhibitmultiple peaks. This shows that the viral product diffusionmodel can be used to forecast the developing tendency of products in themarket through early behavior of these products. Moreover, our model also provides useful insights on how to design effective marketing strategies via social contagions.
