Decision Analysis Tool for Small Satellite Risk Management

作者：Gamble Katharine Brumbaugh^*; Lightsey E Glenn

来源：Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, 2016, 53(3): 420-432.

DOI：10.2514/1.A33401

Risk management plans improve the likelihood of mission success by identifying potential failures early and planning mitigation methods to circumvent any issues. However, in the aerospace industry to date, risk management plans have typically only been used for larger and more expensive satellites and have rarely been applied to lower-cost satellites such as CubeSats. Furthermore, existing risk management plans typically require experienced personnel and significant time to perform the analysis. The CubeSat Decision Advisor tool uses components of decision theory such as decision trees, multi-attribute utility theory, and utility elicitation methods to determine the expected utilities of proposed mitigation techniques to a mission risk. Based on the user's value preference system, assessment of success probabilities, and resources required for a given mitigation technique, the tool suggests the course of action that will normatively yield the most value for the COST, people, and time resources required. This research creates a risk management software tool never before available that is easily accessible and usable for low-cost small satellite missions due to its construction in Microsoft Excel. A demonstration analysis is conducted on a university CubeSat mission as a case study. The target audience for this tool is primarily university labs, which could not otherwise afford expensive software packages. However, the tool is broadly applicable to all organizations, including government, academic, and corporate, and is not constrained to university small satellite mission architectures.

• 出版日期2016-5