A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

作者：van Vuuren, Detlef P.^*; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian C.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Timothy R.; Edmonds, Jae; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

来源：Climatic Change, 2014, 122(3): 373-386.

DOI：10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1

• TEMPERATURE INCREASE
• STABILIZATION
• PATHWAY

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

• 出版日期2014-2
• 单位国际应用系统分析学会(IIASA)